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Bragantino vs Remo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 21:30

Bragantino

PPG 1.40 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Remo

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-14.9%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.4%1-19.5%1-23.2%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.9%2-19.2%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.0%3-16.0%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-14.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.7% 65.8% 1.52 +2.9%

Draw 20.5% 25.3% 3.95 -19.0%

Away win 11.9% 15.6% 6.40 -23.8%

Over 2.5 48.2% 54.1% 1.85 -10.8%

Over 3.5 26.4% 32.3% 3.10 -18.2%

BTTS 41.5% 52.6% 1.90 -21.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob41.5%

H 68% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.4%

#2 2–0 13.9%

#3 1–1 9.5%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 3–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bragantino1.9

Remo0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.2% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BRAGANTINO · PPG 1.40

REMO · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.40), Away POOR (0.33) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Bragantino (H) 67.7%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV +2.9%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -19.0%

Remo (A) 11.9%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV -23.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bragantino face Remo in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bragantino a 68% chance, the draw 21% and Remo 12%, so Bragantino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Bragantino and 0.7 for Remo (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bragantino are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.33 for Remo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.9%. This match finished 4-2.

Bragantino vs Remo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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