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Denver Summit W vs Utah Royals W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Saturday, August 8, 2026, 20:00

Denver Summit W

PPG 1.12 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Utah Royals W

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-19.4%0-27.4%0-33.9%0-4+2.2%1 1-07.3%1-111.6%1-29.2%1-34.9%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.5%2-17.2%2-25.7%2-33.0%2-4+1.7%3 3-01.9%3-13.0%3-22.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.5% 44.4% 2.25 -29.1%

Draw 25.1% 28.2% 3.55 -6.5%

Away win 43.5% 37.0% 2.70 +17.4%

Over 2.5 60.4% 64.5% 1.55 -6.4%

Over 3.5 36.8% 42.0% 2.38 -12.4%

BTTS 59.9% 69.0% 1.45 -13.2%

Home O1.5 34.6% 54.6% 1.83 -36.7%

Away O1.5 48.2% 48.8% 2.05 -1.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -19.4%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob59.9%

A 44% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–0 5.9%

#4 0–1 9.4%

#5 0–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Denver Summit W1.2

Utah Royals W1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DENVER SUMMIT W · PPG 1.12

UTAH ROYALS W · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Denver Summit W (H) 31.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -29.1%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -6.5%

Utah Royals W (A) 43.5%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +17.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Denver Summit W face Utah Royals W in USA - NWSL on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Denver Summit W a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Utah Royals W 44%, so Utah Royals W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Denver Summit W and 1.6 for Utah Royals W (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Denver Summit W are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.67 for Utah Royals W. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +11.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Denver Summit W vs Utah Royals W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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