Today / Argentina - Primera Nacional / Atletico DE Rafaela vs Defensores De Belgrano

Atletico DE Rafaela vs Defensores De Belgrano Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 25 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 23:30

Atletico DE Rafaela

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Defensores De Belgrano

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.2%0-110.1%0-22.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-022.8%1-110.9%1-22.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.2%2-15.8%2-21.4%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-04.4%3-12.1%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 37.0% 2.70 +25.8%

Draw 32.0% 38.5% 2.60 -16.8%

Away win 21.5% 34.5% 2.90 -22.6%

Over 2.5 34.2% 28.6% 3.50 +19.7%

Over 3.5 15.9% 12.5% 8.00 +16.3%

BTTS 44.6% 39.2% 2.55 +13.7%

Home O1.5 30.2% 27.0% 3.70 +11.7%

Away O1.5 16.7% 25.3% 3.95 -20.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 233 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.6%

H 47% / xG 1.1-0.5 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.2%

#2 1–0 22.8%

#3 1–1 10.9%

#4 2–0 12.2%

#5 0–1 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico DE Rafaela1.1

Defensores De Belgrano0.5

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 15.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO DE RAFAELA · PPG 2.17

DEFENSORES DE BELGRANO · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atletico DE Rafaela (H) 46.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +25.8%

Draw 32.0%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -16.8%

Defensores De Belgrano (A) 21.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -22.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico DE Rafaela face Defensores De Belgrano in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico DE Rafaela a 47% chance, the draw 32% and Defensores De Belgrano 22%, so Atletico DE Rafaela are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Atletico DE Rafaela and 0.5 for Defensores De Belgrano (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico DE Rafaela are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.00 for Defensores De Belgrano. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.7%.

Atletico DE Rafaela vs Defensores De Belgrano Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera Nacional Predictions