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Acassuso vs Midland Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 25 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 18:00

Acassuso

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Midland

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.2%0-114.2%0-27.2%0-32.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.4%1-113.5%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.4%2-16.4%2-23.2%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.0%3-12.0%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.4% 28.2% 3.55 +22.1%

Draw 32.2% 35.1% 2.85 -8.2%

Away win 33.4% 46.5% 2.15 -28.2%

Over 2.5 41.6% 35.1% 2.85 +18.6%

Over 3.5 21.1% 15.4% 6.50 +22.3%

BTTS 47.7% 44.4% 2.25 +7.3%

Home O1.5 30.2% 23.8% 4.20 +26.8%

Away O1.5 29.8% 36.4% 2.75 -10.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 233 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.7%

D 32% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.2%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 14.2%

#4 1–0 13.4%

#5 0–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Acassuso0.9

Midland1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.6% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ACASSUSO · PPG 1.40

MIDLAND · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.06, combined xG 1.96 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Acassuso (H) 34.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +22.1%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -8.2%

Midland (A) 33.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -28.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Acassuso face Midland in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Acassuso a 34% chance, the draw 32% and Midland 33%, so Acassuso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Acassuso and 1.0 for Midland (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Acassuso are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.00 for Midland. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +28.7%.

Acassuso vs Midland Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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