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Olimpia vs Cerro Porteno Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 17 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 20:30

Olimpia

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cerro Porteno

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 58.2% vs bookmaker-implied 44.6% — a clear edge.

+30.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.4%0-17.6%0-22.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.3%1-111.2%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.5%2-18.3%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.6%3-14.1%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-12.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.2% 44.6% 2.24 +30.4%

Draw 26.4% 31.3% 3.20 -15.5%

Away win 15.4% 32.8% 3.05 -53.0%

Over 2.5 34.7% 48.8% 2.05 -28.9%

Over 3.5 15.9% 27.4% 3.65 -42.0%

BTTS 35.3% 56.5% 1.77 -37.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob35.3%

H 58% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.3%

#2 2–0 13.5%

#3 0–0 12.4%

#4 1–1 11.2%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olimpia1.5

Cerro Porteno0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.7% · O3.5 PROB 15.9%

Form & verdict PPG

OLIMPIA · PPG 2.50

CERRO PORTENO · PPG 2.13

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.50) > Away EXCELLENT (2.13)

Win probability 1X2

Olimpia (H) 58.2%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV +30.4%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -15.5%

Cerro Porteno (A) 15.4%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -53.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Olimpia face Cerro Porteno in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olimpia a 58% chance, the draw 26% and Cerro Porteno 15%, so Olimpia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Olimpia and 0.6 for Cerro Porteno (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olimpia are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 2.13 for Cerro Porteno. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.4%.

Olimpia vs Cerro Porteno Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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