Today / Colombia - Primera A / Deportes Tolima vs Internacional de Bogota

Deportes Tolima vs Internacional de Bogota Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 23:25

Deportes Tolima

PPG 2.07 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Internacional de Bogota

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-13.3%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.7%1-17.9%1-22.9%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-19.3%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.9%3-17.3%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.1%4+-17.5%4+-22.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.8% 61.0% 1.64 +4.6%

Draw 20.3% 27.4% 3.65 -15.5%

Away win 15.9% 18.5% 5.40 -8.5%

Over 2.5 63.4% 50.0% 2.00 +26.8%

Over 3.5 39.5% 28.2% 3.55 +40.2%

BTTS 53.1% 51.3% 1.95 +3.5%

Home O1.5 62.4% 55.6% 1.80 +12.3%

Away O1.5 17.4% 23.1% 4.33 -14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.1%

H 64% / xG 2.4-0.7 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.6%

#2 3–0 9.9%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 2–1✓ 9.3%

#5 1–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Tolima2.4

Internacional de Bogota0.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES TOLIMA · PPG 2.07

INTERNACIONAL DE BOGOTA · PPG 0.91

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.62 for Home, form 2.07 vs 0.91 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Tolima (H) 63.8%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV +4.6%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -15.5%

Internacional de Bogota (A) 15.9%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Tolima face Internacional de Bogota in Colombia - Primera A on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Tolima a 64% chance, the draw 20% and Internacional de Bogota 16%, so Deportes Tolima are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Deportes Tolima and 0.7 for Internacional de Bogota (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Tolima are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 0.91 for Internacional de Bogota. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +40.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Deportes Tolima vs Internacional de Bogota Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera A Predictions