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Comerciantes Unidos vs Cusco Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 20:15

Comerciantes Unidos

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cusco

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-16.8%0-23.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.7%1-111.5%1-25.2%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.6%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.0%3-15.4%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 34.0% 2.94 +54.1%

Draw 24.6% 30.8% 3.25 -12.0%

Away win 23.0% 42.4% 2.36 -27.4%

Over 2.5 50.4% 51.3% 1.95 -1.7%

Over 3.5 29.5% 29.4% 3.40 +0.2%

BTTS 53.1% 58.8% 1.70 -9.7%

Home O1.5 49.2% 37.7% 2.65 +30.4%

Away O1.5 23.9% 44.4% 2.25 -27.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 3.1%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–0 12.7%

#3 2–0 10.7%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Comerciantes Unidos1.7

Cusco0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

COMERCIANTES UNIDOS · PPG 1.70

CUSCO · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Comerciantes Unidos (H) 52.4%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV +54.1%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.0%

Cusco (A) 23.0%

ODDS 2.36 · IMPLIED 42.4% EV -27.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Comerciantes Unidos face Cusco in Peru - Primera División on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Comerciantes Unidos a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Cusco 23%, so Comerciantes Unidos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Comerciantes Unidos and 0.9 for Cusco (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Comerciantes Unidos are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.00 for Cusco. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +35.9%.

Comerciantes Unidos vs Cusco Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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