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Alianza Atletico vs Cienciano Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Thursday, August 6, 2026, 20:00

Alianza Atletico

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cienciano

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-16.7%0-23.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.2%1-111.4%1-25.8%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.7%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.4%3-15.5%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.5%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 45.0% 2.22 +17.0%

Draw 24.0% 29.0% 3.45 -10.3%

Away win 23.3% 32.8% 3.05 -17.4%

Over 2.5 53.5% 54.6% 1.83 -2.1%

Over 3.5 32.6% 32.3% 3.10 +1.1%

BTTS 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

Home O1.5 49.2% 47.6% 2.10 +3.3%

Away O1.5 32.1% 39.2% 2.55 -18.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 3.1%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 53% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–0 11.2%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alianza Atletico1.7

Cienciano1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ALIANZA ATLETICO · PPG 1.78

CIENCIANO · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Alianza Atletico (H) 52.7%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV +17.0%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -10.3%

Cienciano (A) 23.3%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -17.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alianza Atletico face Cienciano in Peru - Primera División on Thursday, August 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alianza Atletico a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Cienciano 23%, so Alianza Atletico are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Alianza Atletico and 1.0 for Cienciano (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alianza Atletico are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.22 for Cienciano. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +3.3%.

Alianza Atletico vs Cienciano Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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