Today / Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura / Defensor Sporting vs Cerro

Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Torneo Intermedio · Matchday 7 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 22:00

Defensor Sporting

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cerro

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 56.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.8%0-17.4%0-22.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.9%1-110.7%1-22.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.4%2-17.7%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.9%3-13.7%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-11.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 56.2% 1.78 -6.0%

Draw 25.7% 31.3% 3.20 -10.7%

Away win 21.4% 21.5% 4.65 -0.3%

Over 2.5 44.3% 40.8% 2.45 +8.5%

Over 3.5 24.8% 21.1% 4.75 +10.7%

BTTS 48.5% 47.6% 2.10 +1.8%

Home O1.5 45.4% 46.5% 2.15 -2.4%

Away O1.5 17.4% 21.1% 4.75 -10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -38.6%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.5%

H 53% / xG 1.4-0.5 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.9%

#2 0–0 13.8%

#3 2–0 14.4%

#4 1–1 10.7%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensor Sporting1.4

Cerro0.5

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.3% · O3.5 PROB 24.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSOR SPORTING · PPG 1.50

CERRO · PPG 0.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.91 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Defensor Sporting (H) 52.8%

ODDS 1.78 · IMPLIED 56.2% EV -6.0%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.7%

Cerro (A) 21.4%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV -0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensor Sporting face Cerro in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensor Sporting a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Cerro 21%, so Defensor Sporting are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Defensor Sporting and 0.5 for Cerro (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensor Sporting are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.40 for Cerro. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.7%.

Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

More Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura Predictions