Today / Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura / Penarol vs Wanderers

Penarol vs Wanderers Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Torneo Intermedio - Final ·Wednesday, August 5, 2026, 23:00

Penarol

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Wanderers

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-17.7%0-23.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.8%1-112.0%1-25.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.3%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.6%3-14.8%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% — — —

Draw 25.0% — — —

Away win 24.3% — — —

Over 2.5 50.5% — — —

Over 3.5 29.7% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 22.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -34.9%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 51% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 13.8%

#3 2–0 10.7%

#4 0–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Penarol1.6

Wanderers0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PENAROL · PPG 1.75

WANDERERS · PPG 1.45

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Penarol (H) 50.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Wanderers (A) 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Penarol face Wanderers in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Penarol a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Wanderers 24%, so Penarol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Penarol and 0.9 for Wanderers (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Penarol are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.45 for Wanderers.

Penarol vs Wanderers Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

More Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura Predictions