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Cerro Largo vs Juventud Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 1 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 22:00

Cerro Largo

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Juventud

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-18.7%0-23.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.7%1-112.4%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-18.9%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.0%3-14.2%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 36.8% 2.72 +35.5%

Draw 27.2% 33.3% 3.00 -11.0%

Away win 23.0% 39.1% 2.56 -24.7%

Over 2.5 45.9% 42.6% 2.35 +7.9%

Over 3.5 25.8% 22.2% 4.50 +9.7%

BTTS 48.4% 51.8% 1.93 -6.6%

Home O1.5 45.4% 33.9% 2.95 +33.9%

Away O1.5 20.4% 35.7% 2.80 -25.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -34.9%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.4%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 14.7%

#3 0–0 10.3%

#4 2–0 10.5%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cerro Largo1.4

Juventud0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 25.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CERRO LARGO · PPG 1.40

JUVENTUD · PPG 0.91

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cerro Largo (H) 49.8%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV +35.5%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.0%

Juventud (A) 23.0%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV -24.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cerro Largo face Juventud in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cerro Largo a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Juventud 23%, so Cerro Largo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Cerro Largo and 0.8 for Juventud (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cerro Largo are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.91 for Juventud. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +33.9%.

Cerro Largo vs Juventud Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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