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Atletico Torque vs Penarol Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 21:30

Atletico Torque

PPG 1.45 · HOME

UPCOMING

Penarol

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-110.2%0-27.8%0-33.9%0-4+2.1%1 1-08.0%1-112.1%1-29.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.7%2-17.1%2-25.4%2-32.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.8%3-12.8%3-22.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% 29.9% 3.35 +5.2%

Draw 25.0% 31.3% 3.20 -12.0%

Away win 43.7% 48.1% 2.08 -9.1%

Over 2.5 53.5% 47.6% 2.10 +12.3%

Over 3.5 32.3% 27.0% 3.70 +19.5%

BTTS 54.6% 55.6% 1.80 -1.7%

Home O1.5 32.1% 32.3% 3.10 -0.5%

Away O1.5 47.9% 45.5% 2.20 +5.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -28.7%

Bet Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.6%

A 44% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–0 6.8%

#4 0–1 10.2%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Torque1.2

Penarol1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO TORQUE · PPG 1.45

PENAROL · PPG 2.20

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.34 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Torque (H) 31.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +5.2%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.0%

Penarol (A) 43.7%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Torque face Penarol in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Torque a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Penarol 44%, so Penarol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Atletico Torque and 1.5 for Penarol (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Torque are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 2.20 for Penarol. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +20.3%.

Atletico Torque vs Penarol Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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