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Sporting CP vs Vitória SC Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 19:15

Sporting CP

PPG 2.09 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vitória SC

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.4% vs bookmaker-implied 80.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-13.3%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.6%1-17.9%1-22.9%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-19.3%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.9%3-17.3%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.1%4+-17.5%4+-22.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.4% 80.6% 1.24 -18.9%

Draw 19.8% 16.7% 6.00 +11.3%

Away win 14.7% 9.5% 10.50 +32.6%

Over 2.5 60.6% 70.4% 1.42 -14.0%

Over 3.5 37.5% 47.6% 2.10 -21.3%

BTTS 53.1% 54.1% 1.85 -1.8%

Home O1.5 63.0% 80.0% 1.25 -21.3%

Away O1.5 17.2% 21.1% 4.75 -11.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.1%

H 65% / xG 2.4-0.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.5%

#2 3–0 9.9%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 1–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting CP2.4

Vitória SC0.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.6% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING CP · PPG 2.09

VITÓRIA SC · PPG 1.06

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.62 for Home, form 2.09 vs 1.06 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sporting CP (H) 65.4%

ODDS 1.24 · IMPLIED 80.6% EV -18.9%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +11.3%

Vitória SC (A) 14.7%

ODDS 10.50 · IMPLIED 9.5% EV +32.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting CP face Vitória SC in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting CP a 65% chance, the draw 20% and Vitória SC 15%, so Sporting CP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Sporting CP and 0.7 for Vitória SC (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting CP are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 1.06 for Vitória SC. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +12.9%.

Sporting CP vs Vitória SC Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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