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Estoril vs Famalicao Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 1 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 19:15

Estoril

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Famalicao

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-19.5%0-25.5%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.1%1-112.8%1-27.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.4%2-18.6%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.3%3-13.8%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 33.6% 2.98 +32.9%

Draw 26.9% 30.3% 3.30 -6.7%

Away win 28.5% 43.1% 2.32 -20.3%

Over 2.5 50.3% 54.1% 1.85 -6.9%

Over 3.5 28.9% 31.3% 3.20 -4.5%

BTTS 53.7% 59.9% 1.67 -10.3%

Home O1.5 37.4% 39.2% 2.55 -4.6%

Away O1.5 35.4% 46.5% 2.15 -23.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -16.6%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.7%

H 45% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.3%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 0–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estoril1.3

Famalicao1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTORIL · PPG 1.40

FAMALICAO · PPG 1.48

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.19, combined xG 2.49 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Estoril (H) 44.6%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV +32.9%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.7%

Famalicao (A) 28.5%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV -20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Estoril face Famalicao in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estoril a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Famalicao 28%, so Estoril are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Estoril and 1.2 for Famalicao (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estoril are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.48 for Famalicao. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.2%.

Estoril vs Famalicao Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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