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Estrela vs Sporting CP Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 19:30

Estrela

PPG 1.21 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sporting CP

PPG 2.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-19.9%0-29.2%0-35.7%0-4+4.1%1 1-05.7%1-110.6%1-29.9%1-36.1%1-4+4.4%2 2-03.1%2-15.7%2-25.3%2-33.3%2-4+2.3%3 3-01.1%3-12.0%3-21.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.9% 7.7% 13.00 +126.4%

Draw 22.5% 17.9% 5.60 +15.6%

Away win 53.6% 81.3% 1.23 -34.1%

Over 2.5 60.4% 64.5% 1.55 -6.4%

Over 3.5 36.8% 42.6% 2.35 -13.5%

BTTS 54.6% 50.0% 2.00 +9.2%

Home O1.5 32.1% 18.2% 5.50 +76.5%

Away O1.5 54.7% 76.9% 1.30 -28.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob54.6%

A 54% / xG 1.1-1.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.2%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estrela1.1

Sporting CP1.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTRELA · PPG 1.21

SPORTING CP · PPG 2.09

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.79 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Estrela (H) 23.9%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +126.4%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +15.6%

Sporting CP (A) 53.6%

ODDS 1.23 · IMPLIED 81.3% EV -34.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Estrela face Sporting CP in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estrela a 24% chance, the draw 23% and Sporting CP 54%, so Sporting CP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Estrela and 1.9 for Sporting CP (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estrela are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 2.09 for Sporting CP. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +132.7%. This match finished 2-2.

Estrela vs Sporting CP Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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