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Moreirense vs SC Braga Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 19:30

Moreirense

PPG 1.56 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

SC Braga

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-19.5%0-26.9%0-33.4%0-4+1.7%1 1-08.3%1-112.1%1-28.8%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.3%2-17.7%2-25.6%2-32.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.2%3-13.3%3-22.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 21.1% 4.75 +72.4%

Draw 25.1% 27.0% 3.70 -4.3%

Away win 38.5% 59.2% 1.69 -34.9%

Over 2.5 53.5% 51.3% 1.95 +4.3%

Over 3.5 32.3% 29.4% 3.40 +9.8%

BTTS 54.6% 54.1% 1.85 +1.0%

Home O1.5 36.8% 26.3% 3.80 +39.8%

Away O1.5 43.7% 55.6% 1.80 -21.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.6%

A 38% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 0–0 6.5%

#4 2–1 7.7%

#5 0–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Moreirense1.3

SC Braga1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MOREIRENSE · PPG 1.56

SC BRAGA · PPG 1.64

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Moreirense (H) 36.3%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +72.4%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -4.3%

SC Braga (A) 38.5%

ODDS 1.69 · IMPLIED 59.2% EV -34.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Moreirense face SC Braga in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Moreirense a 36% chance, the draw 25% and SC Braga 39%, so SC Braga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Moreirense and 1.5 for SC Braga (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Moreirense are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.64 for SC Braga. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +56.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Moreirense vs SC Braga Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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