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Guimaraes vs Arouca Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 17:00

Guimaraes

PPG 1.60 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Arouca

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+14.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-16.1%0-23.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.3%1-110.9%1-26.3%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.7%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.0%3-15.8%3-23.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.9%4+-22.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% 52.6% 1.90 -2.9%

Draw 24.3% 28.6% 3.50 -9.0%

Away win 24.7% 25.6% 3.90 -2.2%

Over 2.5 60.4% 52.6% 1.90 +14.8%

Over 3.5 36.8% 30.8% 3.25 +19.6%

BTTS 59.6% 57.8% 1.73 +3.1%

Home O1.5 49.2% 51.8% 1.93 -5.0%

Away O1.5 35.4% 32.3% 3.10 +9.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.6%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 0–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guimaraes1.8

Arouca1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GUIMARAES · PPG 1.60

AROUCA · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Guimaraes (H) 51.1%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -2.9%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.0%

Arouca (A) 24.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guimaraes face Arouca in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guimaraes a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Arouca 25%, so Guimaraes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Guimaraes and 1.2 for Arouca (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guimaraes are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.17 for Arouca. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Guimaraes vs Arouca Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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