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FC Porto vs Alverca Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 17:00

FC Porto

PPG 2.25 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Alverca

PPG 1.02 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.5% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-14.2%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.8%1-18.8%1-23.0%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.5%2-19.3%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.6%3-16.6%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.3%4+-15.7%4+-22.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.5% 84.7% 1.18 -25.1%

Draw 21.2% 16.1% 6.20 +18.9%

Away win 15.4% 5.9% 17.00 +97.1%

Over 2.5 53.5% 63.7% 1.57 -16.0%

Over 3.5 32.3% 41.7% 2.40 -22.5%

BTTS 49.6% 44.4% 2.25 +11.6%

Home O1.5 61.4% 78.1% 1.28 -21.4%

Away O1.5 17.4% 14.3% 7.00 +13.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.6%

H 64% / xG 2.1-0.7 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 13.5%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 1–1 8.8%

#4 3–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Porto2.1

Alverca0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FC PORTO · PPG 2.25

ALVERCA · PPG 1.02

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.43 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Porto (H) 63.5%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -25.1%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +18.9%

Alverca (A) 15.4%

ODDS 17.00 · IMPLIED 5.9% EV +97.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Porto face Alverca in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Porto a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Alverca 15%, so FC Porto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for FC Porto and 0.7 for Alverca (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Porto are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.02 for Alverca. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +67.9%. This match finished 2-0.

FC Porto vs Alverca Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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