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Santa Clara vs Nacional Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 1 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 19:15

Santa Clara

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Nacional

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 49.2% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-110.4%0-24.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.3%1-113.1%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.0%2-18.3%2-23.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.8%3-13.5%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 54.3% 1.84 -16.5%

Draw 27.9% 29.9% 3.35 -3.9%

Away win 26.7% 22.7% 4.40 +10.5%

Over 2.5 45.9% 47.6% 2.10 -3.6%

Over 3.5 26.0% 26.3% 3.80 -0.7%

BTTS 49.2% 52.6% 1.90 -6.5%

Home O1.5 37.7% 50.0% 2.00 -24.6%

Away O1.5 24.6% 26.7% 3.75 -4.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 11.3%

#3 1–0 14.3%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 0–1 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santa Clara1.3

Nacional0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTA CLARA · PPG 1.40

NACIONAL · PPG 1.06

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.34, combined xG 2.18 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Santa Clara (H) 45.4%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -16.5%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -3.9%

Nacional (A) 26.7%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +10.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santa Clara face Nacional in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santa Clara a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Nacional 27%, so Santa Clara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Santa Clara and 0.9 for Nacional (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santa Clara are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.06 for Nacional. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Santa Clara vs Nacional Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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