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GIL Vicente vs Rio Ave Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 19:30

GIL Vicente

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Rio Ave

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.8% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-15.9%0-22.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.3%1-110.8%1-25.1%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.4%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.4%3-16.0%3-22.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-14.2%4+-22.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.8% 52.6% 1.90 +4.1%

Draw 23.7% 29.0% 3.45 -10.9%

Away win 21.5% 25.6% 3.90 -9.7%

Over 2.5 53.5% 51.3% 1.95 +4.3%

Over 3.5 32.3% 29.4% 3.40 +9.8%

BTTS 54.6% 56.5% 1.77 -3.4%

Home O1.5 54.2% 51.3% 1.95 +5.7%

Away O1.5 27.7% 31.3% 3.20 -6.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 55% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–0 10.4%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0✓ 11.3%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

GIL Vicente1.8

Rio Ave0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GIL VICENTE · PPG 1.67

RIO AVE · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.89 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

GIL Vicente (H) 54.8%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +4.1%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -10.9%

Rio Ave (A) 21.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

GIL Vicente face Rio Ave in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives GIL Vicente a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Rio Ave 22%, so GIL Vicente are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for GIL Vicente and 0.9 for Rio Ave (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, GIL Vicente are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.33 for Rio Ave. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +17.0%. This match finished 1-0.

GIL Vicente vs Rio Ave Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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