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Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Regular Season - 3 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 18:15

Botev Plovdiv

PPG 1.24 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cherno More Varna

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-17.8%0-23.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.1%1-112.1%1-26.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.4%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.8%3-14.8%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.6%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% — — —

Draw 29.5% — — —

Away win 24.1% — — —

Over 2.5 50.4% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 29.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.2%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 0–0 7.8%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 2–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Botev Plovdiv1.5

Cherno More Varna1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BOTEV PLOVDIV · PPG 1.24

CHERNO MORE VARNA · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Botev Plovdiv (H) 46.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Cherno More Varna (A) 24.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Botev Plovdiv face Cherno More Varna in Bulgaria - First League on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botev Plovdiv a 46% chance, the draw 30% and Cherno More Varna 24%, so Botev Plovdiv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Botev Plovdiv and 1.0 for Cherno More Varna (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botev Plovdiv are averaging 1.24 points per game versus 1.38 for Cherno More Varna.

Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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