Today / Bulgaria - First League / Levski Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia

Levski Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Regular Season - 3 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 16:00

Levski Sofia

PPG 2.39 · HOME

UPCOMING

Septemvri Sofia

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.78 for Home, form 2.39 vs 0.80 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-12.9%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.2%1-17.2%1-22.6%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.7%2-19.0%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.5%3-17.4%3-22.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.8%4+-18.3%4+-22.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.4% — — —

Draw 21.4% — — —

Away win 15.2% — — —

Over 2.5 53.4% — — —

Over 3.5 37.3% — — —

BTTS 48.7% — — —

Home O1.5 63.6% — — —

Away O1.5 20.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.7%

H 63% / xG 2.5-0.7 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.7%

#2 3–0 10.5%

#3 1–0 10.2%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 1–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Levski Sofia2.5

Septemvri Sofia0.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LEVSKI SOFIA · PPG 2.39

SEPTEMVRI SOFIA · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.78 for Home, form 2.39 vs 0.80 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Levski Sofia (H) 63.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Septemvri Sofia (A) 15.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Levski Sofia face Septemvri Sofia in Bulgaria - First League on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Levski Sofia a 63% chance, the draw 21% and Septemvri Sofia 15%, so Levski Sofia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Levski Sofia and 0.7 for Septemvri Sofia (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Levski Sofia are averaging 2.39 points per game versus 0.80 for Septemvri Sofia.

Levski Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bulgaria - First League Predictions