Today / Jamaica - Premier League / Chapelton vs Portmore Utd

Chapelton vs Portmore Utd Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Regular Season - 35 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 20:30

Chapelton

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Portmore Utd

PPG 1.59 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-114.0%0-27.7%0-32.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.2%1-113.5%1-27.4%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.9%2-16.5%2-23.6%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.9%3-12.1%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.2% 23.8% 4.20 +31.0%

Draw 30.2% 32.3% 3.10 -6.4%

Away win 38.6% 54.1% 1.85 -28.6%

Over 2.5 34.0% 41.7% 2.40 -18.4%

Over 3.5 15.4% 22.2% 4.50 -30.7%

BTTS 41.2% 47.6% 2.10 -13.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob41.2%

D 30% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.0%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–0 12.7%

#4 1–0 12.2%

#5 0–2✓ 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chapelton1.0

Portmore Utd1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.0% · O3.5 PROB 15.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CHAPELTON · PPG 1.50

PORTMORE UTD · PPG 1.59

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.59)

Win probability 1X2

Chapelton (H) 31.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +31.0%

Draw 30.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.4%

Portmore Utd (A) 38.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -28.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chapelton face Portmore Utd in Jamaica - Premier League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chapelton a 31% chance, the draw 30% and Portmore Utd 39%, so Portmore Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Chapelton and 1.1 for Portmore Utd (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chapelton are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.59 for Portmore Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +31.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Chapelton vs Portmore Utd Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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