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Alianza A. vs Sport Boys Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura - 11 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 20:00

Alianza A.

PPG 1.80 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Sport Boys

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

No PPG data

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-14.6%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.2%1-18.5%1-22.0%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.9%2-17.9%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-010.4%3-14.9%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-13.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.0% — — —

Draw 20.4% — — —

Away win 8.6% — — —

Over 2.5 40.9% — — —

Over 3.5 20.4% — — —

BTTS 31.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob31.5%

H 71% / xG 1.9-0.5 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.2%

#2 2–0 16.9%

#3 3–0 10.4%

#4 0–0 9.8%

#5 1–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alianza A.1.9

Sport Boys0.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ALIANZA A. · PPG 1.80

SPORT BOYS · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Alianza A. (H) 71.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sport Boys (A) 8.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Alianza A. face Sport Boys in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alianza A. a 71% chance, the draw 20% and Sport Boys 9%, so Alianza A. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Alianza A. and 0.5 for Sport Boys (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alianza A. are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.00 for Sport Boys. This match finished 0-1.

Alianza A. vs Sport Boys Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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