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Molde vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 15:00

Molde

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sarpsborg 08 FF

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-15.2%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.5%1-110.0%1-24.0%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.2%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.8%3-16.3%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-14.7%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 62.5% 1.60 -10.6%

Draw 22.4% 23.8% 4.20 -3.5%

Away win 21.7% 20.8% 4.80 +2.5%

Over 2.5 53.4% 69.0% 1.45 -22.6%

Over 3.5 32.2% 47.6% 2.10 -32.4%

BTTS 52.6% 69.0% 1.45 -23.7%

Home O1.5 53.6% 69.0% 1.45 -22.3%

Away O1.5 20.3% 38.5% 2.60 -28.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 13.4%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.2%

#2 1–1 10.0%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Molde1.9

Sarpsborg 08 FF0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MOLDE · PPG 2.14

SARPSBORG 08 FF · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.14 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Molde (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -10.6%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -3.5%

Sarpsborg 08 FF (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Molde face Sarpsborg 08 FF in Norway - Eliteserien on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Molde a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 22%, so Molde are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Molde and 0.8 for Sarpsborg 08 FF (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Molde are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.00 for Sarpsborg 08 FF.

Molde vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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