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Halmstad vs Sirius Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 15 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 17:00

Halmstad

PPG 0.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sirius

PPG 2.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 69.7% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-16.9%0-29.8%0-39.3%0-4+13.3%1 1-02.1%1-16.0%1-28.6%1-38.1%1-4+11.6%2 2-00.9%2-12.6%2-23.7%2-33.5%2-4+5.0%3 3-00.3%3-10.8%3-21.1%3-31.0%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.2% 12.2% 8.20 +4.9%

Draw 17.1% 20.0% 5.00 -8.7%

Away win 69.7% 74.1% 1.35 -5.9%

Over 2.5 66.9% 69.0% 1.45 -3.0%

Over 3.5 44.8% 47.6% 2.10 -5.9%

BTTS 55.4% 61.7% 1.62 -10.3%

Home O1.5 32.6% 27.4% 3.65 +19.0%

Away O1.5 69.4% 75.2% 1.33 -7.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -7.7%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob55.4%

A 70% / xG 0.9-2.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 9.8%

#2 0–3 9.3%

#3 1–2 8.6%

#4 1–3 8.1%

#5 1–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Halmstad0.9

Sirius2.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HALMSTAD · PPG 0.71

SIRIUS · PPG 2.71

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.97 for Away, form 0.71 vs 2.71

Win probability 1X2

Halmstad (H) 13.2%

ODDS 8.20 · IMPLIED 12.2% EV +4.9%

Draw 17.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -8.7%

Sirius (A) 69.7%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Halmstad face Sirius in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Halmstad a 13% chance, the draw 17% and Sirius 70%, so Sirius are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Halmstad and 2.8 for Sirius (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Halmstad are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 2.71 for Sirius. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +19.0%.

Halmstad vs Sirius Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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