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Minija vs Be1 NFA Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 15:00

Minija

PPG 3.00 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Be1 NFA

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.5% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-13.6%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.0%1-18.3%1-23.1%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-19.4%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.5%3-17.2%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.3%4+-17.0%4+-22.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.5% 67.6% 1.48 -6.0%

Draw 20.8% 23.8% 4.20 -7.6%

Away win 15.7% 20.0% 5.00 -12.9%

Over 2.5 60.4% 61.7% 1.62 -2.1%

Over 3.5 36.8% 35.7% 2.80 +3.0%

BTTS 52.9% 53.2% 1.88 -0.5%

Home O1.5 62.4% 64.5% 1.55 -3.3%

Away O1.5 17.4% 30.3% 3.30 -25.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -39.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.9%

H 64% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.5%

#2 1–0 11.0%

#3 3–0✓ 9.5%

#4 1–1 8.3%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Minija2.3

Be1 NFA0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MINIJA · PPG 3.00

BE1 NFA · PPG 1.70

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.53 for Home, form 3.00 vs 1.70 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Minija (H) 63.5%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -6.0%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -7.6%

Be1 NFA (A) 15.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Minija face Be1 NFA in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Minija a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Be1 NFA 16%, so Minija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Minija and 0.8 for Be1 NFA (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Minija are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.70 for Be1 NFA. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Minija vs Be1 NFA Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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