Today / Lithuania - 1 Lyga / Dainava vs Babrungas

Dainava vs Babrungas Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 15:00

Dainava

PPG 2.44 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Babrungas

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.7%0-117.4%0-28.6%0-32.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-013.2%1-113.0%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-04.9%2-14.9%2-22.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.2%3-11.2%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% 38.2% 2.62 -17.7%

Draw 33.6% 29.4% 3.40 +14.2%

Away win 34.9% 44.4% 2.25 -21.5%

Over 2.5 36.3% 51.3% 1.95 -29.2%

Over 3.5 20.0% 28.6% 3.50 -18.0%

BTTS 47.8% 54.9% 1.82 -13.0%

Home O1.5 32.1% 40.3% 2.48 -20.4%

Away O1.5 29.6% 46.3% 2.16 -21.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -39.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.8%

D 34% / xG 0.7-1.0 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.7%

#2 0–1 17.4%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 1–0 13.2%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dainava0.7

Babrungas1.0

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DAINAVA · PPG 2.44

BABRUNGAS · PPG 2.50

🎯 STRONG BET - Draw signal + Draw value aligned

80%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.24, combined xG 1.73 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dainava (H) 31.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -17.7%

Draw 33.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +14.2%

Babrungas (A) 34.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -21.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dainava face Babrungas in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dainava a 31% chance, the draw 34% and Babrungas 35%, so Babrungas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Dainava and 1.0 for Babrungas (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dainava are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 2.50 for Babrungas. This match finished 2-1.

Dainava vs Babrungas Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Lithuania - 1 Lyga Predictions