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BFA vs Transinvest 2 Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 12:00

BFA

PPG 1.78 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Transinvest 2

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-13.1%0-21.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.0%1-17.6%1-23.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.2%2-19.4%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.2%3-17.7%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-010.2%4+-18.5%4+-23.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.8% 75.2% 1.33 -15.2%

Draw 20.2% 20.0% 5.00 +0.6%

Away win 16.0% 16.7% 6.00 -2.4%

Over 2.5 63.5% 65.4% 1.53 -2.8%

Over 3.5 39.6% 50.8% 1.97 -22.0%

BTTS 54.3% 59.5% 1.68 -8.8%

Home O1.5 62.7% 74.1% 1.35 -15.3%

Away O1.5 20.4% 27.0% 3.70 -14.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -39.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.3%

H 64% / xG 2.5-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 3–0 9.2%

#4 1–1 7.6%

#5 1–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BFA2.5

Transinvest 20.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.5% · O3.5 PROB 39.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BFA · PPG 1.78

TRANSINVEST 2 · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.63 for Home, form 1.78 vs 1.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

BFA (H) 63.8%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -15.2%

Draw 20.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +0.6%

Transinvest 2 (A) 16.0%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

BFA face Transinvest 2 in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BFA a 64% chance, the draw 20% and Transinvest 2 16%, so BFA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for BFA and 0.8 for Transinvest 2 (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BFA are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.00 for Transinvest 2. This match finished 4-2.

BFA vs Transinvest 2 Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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