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Antofagasta vs Copiapo Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 19:30

Antofagasta

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Copiapo

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 74.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+37.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.6%0-21.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.3%1-16.8%1-24.4%1-31.9%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.9%2-18.9%2-25.7%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.0%3-17.7%3-25.0%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-19.5%4+-26.1%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.8% 54.1% 1.85 +21.7%

Draw 17.2% 29.4% 3.40 -41.5%

Away win 16.9% 27.0% 3.70 -37.5%

Over 2.5 74.5% 54.1% 1.85 +37.8%

Over 3.5 54.5% 31.3% 3.20 +74.4%

BTTS 67.0% 58.8% 1.70 +13.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 77%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob67.0%

H 66% / xG 2.6-1.3 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.9%

#2 3–1 7.7%

#3 2–0 6.9%

#4 1–1 6.8%

#5 3–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Antofagasta2.6

Copiapo1.3

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.5% · O3.5 PROB 54.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ANTOFAGASTA · PPG 2.00

COPIAPO · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.67) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Antofagasta (H) 65.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +21.7%

Draw 17.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -41.5%

Copiapo (A) 16.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -37.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Antofagasta face Copiapo in Chile - Primera B on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Antofagasta a 66% chance, the draw 17% and Copiapo 17%, so Antofagasta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Antofagasta and 1.3 for Copiapo (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Antofagasta are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.67 for Copiapo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +74.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Antofagasta vs Copiapo Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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