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Probiy Horodenka vs Chernihiv Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 11:00

Probiy Horodenka

PPG 1.26 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Chernihiv

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-111.1%0-26.2%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.0%1-113.2%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.1%2-17.9%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.8%3-13.1%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% — — —

Draw 33.0% — — —

Away win 29.4% — — —

Over 2.5 45.0% — — —

Over 3.5 25.8% — — —

BTTS 49.4% — — —

Home O1.5 32.8% — — —

Away O1.5 35.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.4%

D 33% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.0%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Probiy Horodenka1.2

Chernihiv1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.0% · O3.5 PROB 25.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PROBIY HORODENKA · PPG 1.26

CHERNIHIV · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.08, combined xG 2.30 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Probiy Horodenka (H) 37.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Chernihiv (A) 29.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Probiy Horodenka face Chernihiv in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Probiy Horodenka a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Chernihiv 29%, so Probiy Horodenka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Probiy Horodenka and 1.1 for Chernihiv (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Probiy Horodenka are averaging 1.26 points per game versus 1.07 for Chernihiv. This match finished 1-1.

Probiy Horodenka vs Chernihiv Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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