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Ahrobiznes Volochysk vs Yarud Mariupol' Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 2 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 13:00

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Yarud Mariupol'

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.9%0-113.5%0-26.6%0-32.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.9%1-113.5%1-26.6%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.0%2-16.8%2-23.3%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.3%3-12.3%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.7% — — —

Draw 31.9% — — —

Away win 30.4% — — —

Over 2.5 41.8% — — —

Over 3.5 22.4% — — —

BTTS 48.7% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 28.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -19.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.7%

D 32% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.9%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 13.9%

#4 0–1 13.5%

#5 2–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ahrobiznes Volochysk1.0

Yarud Mariupol'1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.8% · O3.5 PROB 22.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AHROBIZNES VOLOCHYSK · PPG 1.50

YARUD MARIUPOL' · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.03, combined xG 1.97 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ahrobiznes Volochysk (H) 37.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Yarud Mariupol' (A) 30.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ahrobiznes Volochysk face Yarud Mariupol' in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ahrobiznes Volochysk a 38% chance, the draw 32% and Yarud Mariupol' 30%, so Ahrobiznes Volochysk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Ahrobiznes Volochysk and 1.0 for Yarud Mariupol' (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ahrobiznes Volochysk are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.13 for Yarud Mariupol'.

Ahrobiznes Volochysk vs Yarud Mariupol' Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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