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D. Laferrere vs UAI Urquiza Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 23:00

D. Laferrere

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

UAI Urquiza

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+10.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-19.6%0-26.1%0-32.6%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.0%1-112.6%1-28.0%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.5%2-18.3%2-25.2%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.9%3-13.6%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 45.5% 2.20 -16.8%

Draw 26.5% 33.9% 2.95 -21.8%

Away win 35.6% 30.3% 3.30 +17.5%

Over 2.5 47.5% 38.5% 2.60 +23.5%

Over 3.5 25.9% — — —

BTTS 52.4% 47.6% 2.10 +10.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.4%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 10.0%

#3 0–1 9.6%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Laferrere1.3

UAI Urquiza1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.9%

Form & verdict PPG

D. LAFERRERE · PPG 1.50

UAI URQUIZA · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

D. Laferrere (H) 37.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -16.8%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -21.8%

UAI Urquiza (A) 35.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +17.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Laferrere face UAI Urquiza in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Laferrere a 38% chance, the draw 27% and UAI Urquiza 36%, so D. Laferrere are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for D. Laferrere and 1.3 for UAI Urquiza (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Laferrere are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.75 for UAI Urquiza. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.5%.

D. Laferrere vs UAI Urquiza Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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