Today / Australia - NPL Victoria / Preston Lions vs Green Gully

Preston Lions vs Green Gully Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Regular Season - 23 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 10:30

Preston Lions

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Green Gully

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-15.3%0-21.6%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.5%1-19.6%1-22.8%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.0%2-18.7%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.0%3-15.3%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-13.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 76.9% 1.30 -27.3%

Draw 23.1% 21.7% 4.60 +3.8%

Away win 21.0% 11.6% 8.60 +48.4%

Over 2.5 50.4% 61.7% 1.62 -18.4%

Over 3.5 28.9% 40.0% 2.50 -16.7%

BTTS 48.7% 54.1% 1.85 -9.9%

Home O1.5 49.6% 72.5% 1.38 -31.6%

Away O1.5 17.4% 22.2% 4.50 -13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 7.3%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.7%

H 56% / xG 1.8-0.6 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.5%

#2 2–0 15.0%

#3 1–1 9.6%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 3–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Preston Lions1.8

Green Gully0.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PRESTON LIONS · PPG 1.78

GREEN GULLY · PPG 0.60

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.23 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Preston Lions (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -27.3%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +3.8%

Green Gully (A) 21.0%

ODDS 8.60 · IMPLIED 11.6% EV +48.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Preston Lions face Green Gully in Australia - NPL Victoria on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Preston Lions a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Green Gully 21%, so Preston Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Preston Lions and 0.6 for Green Gully (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Preston Lions are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.60 for Green Gully. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +32.8%.

Preston Lions vs Green Gully Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL Victoria Predictions