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Sydney FC U23 vs St George City FA Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 28 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 09:30

Sydney FC U23

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

St George City FA

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-18.1%0-23.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.4%1-112.2%1-25.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.2%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.1%3-14.6%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 46.5% 2.15 +4.9%

Draw 26.7% 30.3% 3.30 -7.1%

Away win 24.5% 33.9% 2.95 -16.6%

Over 2.5 49.9% 57.8% 1.73 -13.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 36.4% 2.75 -12.6%

BTTS 53.1% 63.7% 1.57 -16.6%

Home O1.5 45.1% 51.3% 1.95 -12.1%

Away O1.5 23.9% 41.7% 2.40 -25.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 49% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 13.4%

#3 0–0 8.9%

#4 2–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sydney FC U231.5

St George City FA0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SYDNEY FC U23 · PPG 1.62

ST GEORGE CITY FA · PPG 0.83

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.59 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sydney FC U23 (H) 48.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +4.9%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.1%

St George City FA (A) 24.5%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sydney FC U23 face St George City FA in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sydney FC U23 a 49% chance, the draw 27% and St George City FA 25%, so Sydney FC U23 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sydney FC U23 and 0.9 for St George City FA (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sydney FC U23 are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.83 for St George City FA.

Sydney FC U23 vs St George City FA Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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