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Sydney United vs NWS Spirit Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 26 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 04:30

Sydney United

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

NWS Spirit

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-17.7%0-22.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.6%1-111.2%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.6%2-18.1%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.6%3-14.0%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 52.4% 1.91 +0.1%

Draw 26.3% 30.8% 3.25 -8.7%

Away win 21.3% 27.0% 3.70 -12.7%

Over 2.5 44.0% 51.8% 1.93 -15.1%

Over 3.5 22.8% 30.8% 3.25 -15.5%

BTTS 45.4% 57.8% 1.73 -21.5%

Home O1.5 45.4% 51.3% 1.95 -11.5%

Away O1.5 17.4% 33.3% 3.00 -28.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 119 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.4%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.6%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 2–0 13.6%

#4 1–1 11.2%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sydney United1.5

NWS Spirit0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SYDNEY UNITED · PPG 2.33

NWS SPIRIT · PPG 0.83

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.86 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sydney United (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +0.1%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.7%

NWS Spirit (A) 21.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -12.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sydney United face NWS Spirit in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sydney United a 52% chance, the draw 26% and NWS Spirit 21%, so Sydney United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sydney United and 0.6 for NWS Spirit (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sydney United are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.83 for NWS Spirit.

Sydney United vs NWS Spirit Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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