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St. George Saints vs APIA Leichhardt Tigers Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 08:30

St. George Saints

PPG 0.77 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-17.5%0-29.2%0-37.5%0-4+8.2%1 1-03.2%1-17.8%1-29.5%1-37.8%1-4+8.5%2 2-01.6%2-14.0%2-24.9%2-34.0%2-4+4.4%3 3-00.6%3-11.4%3-21.7%3-31.4%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.4% 16.0% 6.25 -6.0%

Draw 20.3% 21.1% 4.75 -2.1%

Away win 65.4% 73.5% 1.36 -11.1%

Over 2.5 67.2% 64.5% 1.55 +4.2%

Over 3.5 44.0% 40.8% 2.45 +7.8%

BTTS 61.8% 57.1% 1.75 +8.2%

Home O1.5 32.1% 26.7% 3.75 +20.4%

Away O1.5 65.0% 71.4% 1.40 -9.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob61.8%

A 65% / xG 1.0-2.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.5%

#2 0–2 9.2%

#3 1–1 7.8%

#4 1–3 7.8%

#5 0–3 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. George Saints1.0

APIA Leichhardt Tigers2.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. GEORGE SAINTS · PPG 0.77

APIA LEICHHARDT TIGERS · PPG 2.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.41 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

St. George Saints (H) 14.4%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV -6.0%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -2.1%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers (A) 65.4%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. George Saints face APIA Leichhardt Tigers in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. George Saints a 14% chance, the draw 20% and APIA Leichhardt Tigers 65%, so APIA Leichhardt Tigers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for St. George Saints and 2.4 for APIA Leichhardt Tigers (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. George Saints are averaging 0.77 points per game versus 2.00 for APIA Leichhardt Tigers. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +20.4%. This match finished 0-0.

St. George Saints vs APIA Leichhardt Tigers Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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