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Blacktown City vs Sydney FC U23 Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 26 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 05:00

Blacktown City

PPG 0.92 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sydney FC U23

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-19.0%0-26.0%0-32.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.2%1-112.3%1-28.2%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.3%2-18.4%2-25.6%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.9%3-13.8%3-22.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.6% 54.1% 1.85 -23.0%

Draw 25.6% 28.2% 3.55 -5.5%

Away win 32.7% 28.6% 3.50 +14.4%

Over 2.5 53.4% 61.7% 1.62 -13.5%

Over 3.5 32.2% 39.2% 2.55 -17.9%

BTTS 55.4% 65.4% 1.53 -15.2%

Home O1.5 38.3% 57.8% 1.73 -33.7%

Away O1.5 43.7% 39.2% 2.55 +11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 119 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.4%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 6.7%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 1–2 8.2%

#5 1–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Blacktown City1.4

Sydney FC U231.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BLACKTOWN CITY · PPG 0.92

SYDNEY FC U23 · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.03 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Blacktown City (H) 41.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -23.0%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -5.5%

Sydney FC U23 (A) 32.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Blacktown City face Sydney FC U23 in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Blacktown City a 42% chance, the draw 26% and Sydney FC U23 33%, so Blacktown City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Blacktown City and 1.3 for Sydney FC U23 (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Blacktown City are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 1.25 for Sydney FC U23. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +11.9%.

Blacktown City vs Sydney FC U23 Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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