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Manly United vs Marconi Stallions Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 07:00

Manly United

PPG 1.92 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Marconi Stallions

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-115.2%0-29.0%0-33.6%0-4+1.4%1 1-011.1%1-113.2%1-27.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-04.8%2-15.7%2-23.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.4%3-11.7%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.1% 23.8% 4.20 +39.0%

Draw 29.4% 27.8% 3.60 +3.5%

Away win 37.6% 57.8% 1.73 -34.9%

Over 2.5 45.9% 51.3% 1.95 -10.5%

Over 3.5 25.8% 28.6% 3.50 -5.8%

BTTS 49.6% 54.1% 1.85 -8.2%

Home O1.5 32.1% 28.2% 3.55 +14.0%

Away O1.5 35.5% 54.1% 1.85 -34.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.6%

D 29% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 0–1 15.2%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 0–2 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manly United0.9

Marconi Stallions1.2

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 25.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MANLY UNITED · PPG 1.92

MARCONI STALLIONS · PPG 2.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.32, combined xG 2.06 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Manly United (H) 33.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +39.0%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +3.5%

Marconi Stallions (A) 37.6%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -34.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manly United face Marconi Stallions in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manly United a 33% chance, the draw 29% and Marconi Stallions 38%, so Marconi Stallions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Manly United and 1.2 for Marconi Stallions (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manly United are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 2.00 for Marconi Stallions. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +14.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Manly United vs Marconi Stallions Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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