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St George City FA vs Rockdale City Suns Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 09:15

St George City FA

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Rockdale City Suns

PPG 1.77 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-110.8%0-28.7%0-34.6%0-4+2.7%1 1-07.3%1-111.8%1-29.5%1-35.1%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.0%2-16.5%2-25.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.5%3-12.4%3-21.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.6% 29.4% 3.40 -3.7%

Draw 25.7% 28.6% 3.50 -6.0%

Away win 46.6% 52.4% 1.91 -11.0%

Over 2.5 53.5% 55.6% 1.80 -3.7%

Over 3.5 32.3% 32.3% 3.10 +0.1%

BTTS 54.5% 59.9% 1.67 -9.0%

Home O1.5 32.1% 35.7% 2.80 -10.1%

Away O1.5 48.2% 52.6% 1.90 -8.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.5%

A 47% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–1 10.8%

#4 0–2 8.7%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St George City FA1.1

Rockdale City Suns1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ST GEORGE CITY FA · PPG 1.50

ROCKDALE CITY SUNS · PPG 1.77

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.51 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

St George City FA (H) 27.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -3.7%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -6.0%

Rockdale City Suns (A) 46.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

St George City FA face Rockdale City Suns in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St George City FA a 28% chance, the draw 26% and Rockdale City Suns 47%, so Rockdale City Suns are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for St George City FA and 1.6 for Rockdale City Suns (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St George City FA are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.77 for Rockdale City Suns. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 1-0.

St George City FA vs Rockdale City Suns Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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