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NWS Spirit vs Blacktown City Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 07:30

NWS Spirit

PPG 1.62 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Blacktown City

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-18.1%0-25.8%0-32.8%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.2%1-111.7%1-28.3%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.9%2-18.4%2-26.0%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.8%3-14.0%3-22.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.0%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.0% 42.6% 2.35 -6.0%

Draw 25.1% 29.0% 3.45 -8.0%

Away win 35.0% 38.5% 2.60 -9.0%

Over 2.5 60.4% 57.8% 1.73 +4.5%

Over 3.5 36.1% 35.1% 2.85 +2.9%

BTTS 60.0% 63.7% 1.57 -5.8%

Home O1.5 45.4% 47.6% 2.10 -4.7%

Away O1.5 43.7% 45.5% 2.20 -3.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.0%

H 40% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 0–0 5.7%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NWS Spirit1.4

Blacktown City1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NWS SPIRIT · PPG 1.62

BLACKTOWN CITY · PPG 1.31

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

NWS Spirit (H) 40.0%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -6.0%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -8.0%

Blacktown City (A) 35.0%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

NWS Spirit face Blacktown City in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NWS Spirit a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Blacktown City 35%, so NWS Spirit are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for NWS Spirit and 1.4 for Blacktown City (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NWS Spirit are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.31 for Blacktown City. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.5%. This match finished 3-1.

NWS Spirit vs Blacktown City Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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