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SD Raiders vs Western Sydney Wanderers U23 Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 07:00

SD Raiders

PPG 1.29 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Western Sydney Wanderers U23

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-15.5%0-25.7%0-33.9%0-4+3.3%1 1-04.1%1-18.5%1-28.9%1-36.1%1-4+5.1%2 2-03.2%2-16.7%2-26.9%2-34.8%2-4+4.0%3 3-01.7%3-13.5%3-23.6%3-32.5%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.9%4+-22.0%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.0% 45.5% 2.20 -34.0%

Draw 21.6% 27.4% 3.65 -12.7%

Away win 48.4% 37.7% 2.65 +28.3%

Over 2.5 67.1% 67.6% 1.48 -0.7%

Over 3.5 44.0% 45.5% 2.20 -3.2%

BTTS 64.3% 70.4% 1.42 -8.7%

Home O1.5 46.0% 55.6% 1.80 -17.2%

Away O1.5 54.7% 51.3% 1.95 +6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob64.3%

A 48% / xG 1.6-2.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 2–1 6.7%

#5 1–3 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SD Raiders1.6

Western Sydney Wanderers U232.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SD RAIDERS · PPG 1.29

WESTERN SYDNEY WANDERERS U23 · PPG 1.75

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.51 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

SD Raiders (H) 30.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -34.0%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -12.7%

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 (A) 48.4%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +28.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

SD Raiders face Western Sydney Wanderers U23 in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SD Raiders a 30% chance, the draw 22% and Western Sydney Wanderers U23 48%, so Western Sydney Wanderers U23 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for SD Raiders and 2.1 for Western Sydney Wanderers U23 (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SD Raiders are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.75 for Western Sydney Wanderers U23. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +11.3%. This match finished 3-0.

SD Raiders vs Western Sydney Wanderers U23 Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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