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UNSW vs Sydney Olympic Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 05:30

UNSW

PPG 1.92 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sydney Olympic

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-13.4%0-21.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.4%1-18.1%1-24.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.7%2-19.6%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.9%3-17.6%3-24.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-07.2%4+-17.9%4+-24.3%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.2% 55.6% 1.80 +3.0%

Draw 21.9% 27.8% 3.60 -12.7%

Away win 20.8% 28.6% 3.50 -16.3%

Over 2.5 65.1% 63.7% 1.57 +2.2%

Over 3.5 43.0% 42.0% 2.38 +2.3%

BTTS 61.8% 65.4% 1.53 -5.5%

Home O1.5 62.4% 59.9% 1.67 +4.2%

Away O1.5 35.4% 38.2% 2.62 -7.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.8%

H 57% / xG 2.4-1.1 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 3–1 7.6%

#5 3–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UNSW2.4

Sydney Olympic1.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

UNSW · PPG 1.92

SYDNEY OLYMPIC · PPG 0.79

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.27 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

UNSW (H) 57.2%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +3.0%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.7%

Sydney Olympic (A) 20.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

UNSW face Sydney Olympic in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UNSW a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Sydney Olympic 21%, so UNSW are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for UNSW and 1.1 for Sydney Olympic (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UNSW are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 0.79 for Sydney Olympic. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +19.4%. This match finished 1-3.

UNSW vs Sydney Olympic Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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