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Sutherland Sharks vs Sydney FC U23 Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 07:30

Sutherland Sharks

PPG 1.58 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Sydney FC U23

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-16.3%0-23.7%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.4%1-111.0%1-26.5%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.7%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.8%3-15.6%3-23.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.7%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% 52.4% 1.91 -3.0%

Draw 24.2% 27.0% 3.70 -6.3%

Away win 25.0% 30.8% 3.25 -11.3%

Over 2.5 60.4% 62.5% 1.60 -3.4%

Over 3.5 36.8% 40.0% 2.50 -8.0%

BTTS 59.9% 65.4% 1.53 -8.3%

Home O1.5 49.2% 57.8% 1.73 -14.9%

Away O1.5 35.4% 40.8% 2.45 -13.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.9%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 0–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sutherland Sharks1.8

Sydney FC U231.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SUTHERLAND SHARKS · PPG 1.58

SYDNEY FC U23 · PPG 1.15

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sutherland Sharks (H) 50.8%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -3.0%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.3%

Sydney FC U23 (A) 25.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sutherland Sharks face Sydney FC U23 in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sutherland Sharks a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Sydney FC U23 25%, so Sutherland Sharks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Sutherland Sharks and 1.2 for Sydney FC U23 (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sutherland Sharks are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.15 for Sydney FC U23. This match finished 1-1.

Sutherland Sharks vs Sydney FC U23 Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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