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Wollongong Wolves vs Sydney United Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 27 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 05:00

Wollongong Wolves

PPG 1.25 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Sydney United

PPG 1.77 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-115.1%0-29.8%0-34.2%0-4+1.8%1 1-09.9%1-112.9%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-04.2%2-15.5%2-23.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.2%3-11.6%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.0% 22.7% 4.40 +13.9%

Draw 28.0% 26.0% 3.85 +4.7%

Away win 44.0% 61.0% 1.64 -27.8%

Over 2.5 45.9% 55.6% 1.80 -17.4%

Over 3.5 26.4% 32.3% 3.10 -10.9%

BTTS 49.6% 55.6% 1.80 -10.7%

Home O1.5 32.1% 29.0% 3.45 +10.8%

Away O1.5 37.4% 58.8% 1.70 -36.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob49.6%

A 44% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 11.6%

#3 0–1 15.1%

#4 0–2 9.8%

#5 1–2✓ 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wollongong Wolves0.9

Sydney United1.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

WOLLONGONG WOLVES · PPG 1.25

SYDNEY UNITED · PPG 1.77

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.44, combined xG 2.15 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Wollongong Wolves (H) 28.0%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +13.9%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +4.7%

Sydney United (A) 44.0%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -27.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wollongong Wolves face Sydney United in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wollongong Wolves a 28% chance, the draw 28% and Sydney United 44%, so Sydney United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Wollongong Wolves and 1.3 for Sydney United (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wollongong Wolves are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.77 for Sydney United. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +10.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Wollongong Wolves vs Sydney United Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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