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D. Puerto Montt vs Union Espanola Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 20 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 23:00

D. Puerto Montt

PPG 2.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Union Espanola

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+14.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-16.8%0-22.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.1%1-111.3%1-24.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.8%2-19.4%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.6%3-15.3%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-13.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 46.5% 2.15 +14.4%

Draw 24.3% 31.3% 3.20 -13.3%

Away win 22.5% 32.3% 3.10 -18.1%

Over 2.5 53.6% 48.8% 2.05 +9.9%

Over 3.5 31.8% 27.0% 3.70 +17.7%

BTTS 53.1% 55.6% 1.80 -4.4%

Home O1.5 48.8% 44.4% 2.25 +9.8%

Away O1.5 21.1% 34.5% 2.90 -23.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–0 14.1%

#3 2–0 11.8%

#4 0–0 8.4%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Puerto Montt1.7

Union Espanola0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

D. PUERTO MONTT · PPG 2.11

UNION ESPANOLA · PPG 0.62

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

D. Puerto Montt (H) 53.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +14.4%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.3%

Union Espanola (A) 22.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Puerto Montt face Union Espanola in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Puerto Montt a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Union Espanola 23%, so D. Puerto Montt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for D. Puerto Montt and 0.8 for Union Espanola (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Puerto Montt are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 0.62 for Union Espanola. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.7%.

D. Puerto Montt vs Union Espanola Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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