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Deportes Temuco vs Magallanes Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 00:00

Deportes Temuco

PPG 1.12 · HOME

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Magallanes

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.8%0-22.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.2%1-19.7%1-25.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.6%3-16.6%3-23.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-15.3%4+-23.1%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.9% 42.6% 2.35 +26.7%

Draw 22.4% 29.4% 3.40 -14.3%

Away win 23.7% 38.2% 2.62 -22.7%

Over 2.5 61.8% 56.5% 1.77 +9.4%

Over 3.5 38.4% 33.9% 2.95 +13.3%

BTTS 60.6% 62.5% 1.60 -3.0%

Home O1.5 55.4% 47.6% 2.10 +16.3%

Away O1.5 35.4% 43.5% 2.30 -18.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.6%

H 54% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 8.2%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Temuco2.0

Magallanes1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.8% · O3.5 PROB 38.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES TEMUCO · PPG 1.12

MAGALLANES · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Temuco (H) 53.9%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +26.7%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.3%

Magallanes (A) 23.7%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -22.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Temuco face Magallanes in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Temuco a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Magallanes 24%, so Deportes Temuco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Deportes Temuco and 1.2 for Magallanes (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Temuco are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.33 for Magallanes. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +39.6%. This match finished 3-4.

Deportes Temuco vs Magallanes Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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