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Deportes Copiapo vs San Luis Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 16:30

Deportes Copiapo

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

San Luis

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+23.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-15.6%0-23.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.5%1-110.5%1-25.8%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.6%3-16.2%3-23.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-14.4%4+-22.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 45.5% 2.20 +17.9%

Draw 23.3% 31.3% 3.20 -15.3%

Away win 23.1% 33.9% 2.95 -19.1%

Over 2.5 60.4% 48.8% 2.05 +23.8%

Over 3.5 36.8% 27.0% 3.70 +36.2%

BTTS 54.6% 55.6% 1.80 -1.7%

Home O1.5 55.4% 43.5% 2.30 +27.4%

Away O1.5 35.4% 35.7% 2.80 -0.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 0–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Copiapo1.9

San Luis1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES COPIAPO · PPG 2.00

SAN LUIS · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Copiapo (H) 53.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +17.9%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -15.3%

San Luis (A) 23.1%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -19.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Copiapo face San Luis in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Copiapo a 54% chance, the draw 23% and San Luis 23%, so Deportes Copiapo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Deportes Copiapo and 1.1 for San Luis (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Copiapo are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.75 for San Luis. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +46.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Deportes Copiapo vs San Luis Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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