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Santa Fe vs Cucuta Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Apertura · Matchday 17 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 19:00

Santa Fe

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDDW

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Cucuta

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 57% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+28.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-13.3%0-21.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.3%1-18.0%1-24.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.8%2-19.6%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.0%3-17.7%3-24.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-18.1%4+-24.4%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.2% 64.9% 1.54 +1.9%

Draw 18.1% 26.0% 3.85 -30.3%

Away win 15.7% 16.0% 6.25 -1.9%

Over 2.5 67.7% 52.6% 1.90 +28.6%

Over 3.5 46.1% 30.8% 3.25 +49.8%

BTTS 60.4% 51.3% 1.95 +17.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 4.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.4%

H 66% / xG 2.4-1.1 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 2–0 8.8%

#3 1–1 8.0%

#4 3–1 7.7%

#5 1–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santa Fe2.4

Cucuta1.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.7% · O3.5 PROB 46.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTA FE · PPG 1.29

CUCUTA · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.29) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Santa Fe (H) 66.2%

ODDS 1.54 · IMPLIED 64.9% EV +1.9%

Draw 18.1%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -30.3%

Cucuta (A) 15.7%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV -1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santa Fe face Cucuta in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santa Fe a 66% chance, the draw 18% and Cucuta 16%, so Santa Fe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Santa Fe and 1.1 for Cucuta (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santa Fe are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.50 for Cucuta. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +49.8%. This match finished 5-0.

Santa Fe vs Cucuta Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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