Santa Fe vs Cucuta Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Colombia - Primera A Apertura - 17 Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin· Bogota Sunday, April 19, 2026 19:00

Santa Fe PPG 1.29

5-0 MISS

Cucuta PPG 0.50

Over3.5· +49.8% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Santa Fe face Cucuta in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santa Fe a 66% chance, the draw 18% and Cucuta 16%, so Santa Fe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Santa Fe and 1.1 for Cucuta (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santa Fe are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.50 for Cucuta. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +49.8%. This match finished 5-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 66.2%

Odds: 1.54 EV: +1.9%

Draw 18.1%

Odds: 3.85 EV: -30.3%

Away 15.7%

Odds: 6.25 EV: -1.9%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 67.7% Odds: 1.90 +28.6%

Over 3.5 46.1% Odds: 3.25 +49.8%

BTTS 60.4% Odds: 1.95 +17.8%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 3-1 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Santa Fe

2.40

Cucuta

1.09

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +28.6% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+49.8%)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.29) > Away POOR (0.50)