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Central Córdoba SdE Res. vs Independiente Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Thursday, August 13, 2026, 20:00

Central Córdoba SdE Res.

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Independiente Res.

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-19.0%0-29.2%0-36.3%0-4+5.1%1 1-04.8%1-19.7%1-29.9%1-36.8%1-4+5.5%2 2-02.6%2-15.2%2-25.3%2-33.6%2-4+3.0%3 3-00.9%3-11.9%3-21.9%3-31.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.1% — — —

Draw 21.7% — — —

Away win 55.2% — — —

Over 2.5 59.5% — — —

Over 3.5 36.5% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 53.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 30%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 66%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob54.5%

A 55% / xG 1.1-2.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.2%

#4 0–1 9.0%

#5 1–3 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Central Córdoba SdE Res.1.1

Independiente Res.2.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CENTRAL CÓRDOBA SDE RES. · PPG 1.50

INDEPENDIENTE RES. · PPG 1.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.97 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Central Córdoba SdE Res. (H) 23.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Independiente Res. (A) 55.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Central Córdoba SdE Res. face Independiente Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Thursday, August 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Central Córdoba SdE Res. a 23% chance, the draw 22% and Independiente Res. 55%, so Independiente Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Central Córdoba SdE Res. and 2.0 for Independiente Res. (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Central Córdoba SdE Res. are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.70 for Independiente Res..

Central Córdoba SdE Res. vs Independiente Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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